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在过去的2000年里,2023年夏天的温暖是无与伦比的
Jan Esper1,2, Max Torbenson3, Ulf Büntgen4,5,6
1Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany. esper@uni-mainz.de.
Nature
|May 14, 2024
概括
2023年是北半球2000年来最热的夏天, 超过了自然气候变化. 这种极端的变暖凸显了全球碳排放的迫切需要.
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 近年来,包括2023年,全球气温创下历史新高.
- 准确评估当前的变暖需要与长期的自然气候变化进行比较.
- 19世纪的历史气象数据可能高估了过去的温度,使比较变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 将2023年北半球夏季气温与2000年的古气候记录联系起来.
- 确定2023年的夏季温度是否超过自然气候变化的极限.
- 突出极端变暖对气候政策的影响.
主要方法:
- 综合观察和重建的6月至8月表面空气温度数据.
- 分析了北半球外热带地区过去2000年的温度记录.
- 使用统计方法来定义自然气候变化的范围.
主要成果:
- 2023年北半球超热带夏季是有史以来最热的2000年.
- 2023年温度超过了自然变化的95%置信区间超过0.5°C.
- 2023年夏天和最冷的重建夏天 (CE 536) 的温度差异为3.93°C.
结论:
- 2023年夏季的极端温度与温室气体引起的变暖趋势一致,
- 这项研究提供了强有力的证据,
- 这些发现强调了实施减少碳排放的国际协议的必要性.
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