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全球预测老年人暴露于热量的全球预测
Giacomo Falchetta1,2,3, Enrica De Cian4,5,6, Ian Sue Wing7
1CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy. giacomo.falchetta@cmcc.it.
Nature communications
|May 14, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,全球老龄化人口面临越来越多的热量暴露. 到本世纪中叶,慢性热暴露将翻一番,显著增加老年人的风险,特别是在亚洲和非洲.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球人口老龄化,使得容易受到环境压力因素影响的个体比例增加.
- 气候变化正在导致全球热量暴露量有记录的增加.
- 与年龄相关的生物和社会经济因素显著影响人们对极端高温的脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的热暴露负担对全球老龄化人口的负担.
- 根据各种气候变化情景,量化老年人危险高温条件的增加.
- 确定最容易受到升级的热带健康威胁风险的地区.
主要方法:
- 利用年龄分层的人口预测与缩小的气候模型输出相结合,以预测到本世纪中叶的温度.
- 分析了69岁以上全球人口中暴露于超过临界值的温度的百分比 (每日最高温度的第95百分比>37.5°C).
- 评估热暴露风险和适应能力的区域差异.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶,在所有变暖情景中,慢性热暴露将在全球范围内翻一番.
- 超过23%的69岁以上的全球人口将经历极端高温,而目前这一比例为14%.
- 另外还有1.77亿至2.74亿的老年人将面临危险的急性高温,亚洲和非洲的影响最严重.
结论:
- 人口老龄化与气候变化相结合,在全世界的老年人中显著提高了与热量有关的健康风险.
- 亚洲和非洲面临不成比例的更高的风险,由于增加暴露和较低的适应能力的结合.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施和区域热风险评估,以保护脆弱的老龄化人口.
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