在未来的气候场景下,预测印度尼西亚中央爪的面包果作物 (Moraceae) 适合种植的面积
Suyud Warno Utomo1, Fatma Lestari2,3, Andrio Adiwibowo3
1School of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Frontiers in plant science
|May 15, 2024
概括
中爪的面包果种植区预计将在气候变化下向东扩张. 实施缓解策略可以显著增加适合这种重要的粮食安全作物的土地.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 面包果 (Artocarpus altilis) 是一种适应气候的作物,在印度尼西亚广泛种植.
- 有限的数据存在于面包的气候变化弹性,特别是在中央爪,一个关键的农业地区.
- 中爪对于支持爪岛庞大的人口至关重要,面包是一种正在发展中的作物.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化场景下,模拟中央爪面包的当前和未来分布.
- 评估不同代表性度路径 (RCP) 对适合种植面包果的种植面积的影响.
- 确定面包的潜在扩张区,以加强区域粮食安全.
主要方法:
- 使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 预测面包的分布.
- 两个气候变化场景 (RCP2.6和RCP8.5) 用于未来的预测 (2050-2070).
- 分析重点关注了在乐观和悲观的气候未来条件下适合种植面积的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计在RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种情景下,适合面包种植的面积将在中爪向东转移.
- 在乐观的RCP2.6情景下,预计到2050年将增加270,967平方公里,到2070年将增加133,296平方公里.
- 在RCP2.6下将温度上升限制在1°C的缓解努力显著增加了潜在的种植面积.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了关于面包适应能力和东南亚潜在种植区的关键见解.
- 确定合适的地区对于有针对性的土地保护工作至关重要,以加强粮食安全.
- 气候变化适应战略可以扩大面包果种植,支持区域粮食供应.
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