在一个变暖的世界里,西欧扩大了季节性
Niels J de Winter1,2, Julia Tindall3, Andrew L A Johnson4
1Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Science advances
|May 15, 2024
概括
皮亚森斯温带期中期的夏季比冬季要温暖得多,类似于未来气候预测. 这种强烈的季节性对比增加了极端天气事件的风险,如热浪.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 同位素地球化学 同位素地球化学
背景情况:
- 中期皮亚森热期 (mPWP) 提供了对未来变暖情景的见解.
- 了解过去的季节性温度周期对于减轻极端天气风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用化石软体动物来重建mPWP期间的季节性温度.
- 为了测试新纪模型对比项目2 (PMIP2) 的结果与古气候数据的对比.
- 根据温和的共享社会经济路径SSP2-4.5.5评估未来气候预测.
主要方法:
- 从北海发现的化石软体贝的季节性聚类同位素分析.
- 古气候重建和与气候模型输出进行比较.
主要成果:
- 与冬季升温 (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) 相比,mPWP的夏季升温增强 (+4.3° ± 1.0°C).
- 这些发现与SSP2-4.5.5的气候模型预测一致.
- 北极的放大被证明削弱了中度夏季循环.
结论:
- 在mPWP期间增加的季节性温度对比度加剧了温度和降水变化.
- 这种加剧导致未来气候中夏季热浪和极端天气事件的风险更高.
- 古气候数据为预测未来变暖影响的气候模型提供了有价值的验证.
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