省级评估中国对干旱的脆弱性和抵御力
Chaoran Zhao1, Yao Feng2, Wenbin Liu2
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|May 16, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 社会经济学研究 社会经济学研究
背景情况:
- 在中国,频繁的干旱造成了严重的灾害损失.
- 提高抗旱能力和减少脆弱性是社会经济稳定和可持续发展的关键.
- 有效的干旱风险管理需要全面的脆弱性和弹性评估.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个框架来评估中国干旱脆弱性和抗旱能力的时空特征.
- 分析干旱驱动因素,灾害形成环境,干旱承载者,灾害强度和恢复.
- 为干旱风险减缓和可持续社会经济发展提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了超高效率数据包围分析 (DEA) 和超高效率松散基测量DEA (SBM-DEA) 模型.
- 在省级评估中采用了输入-输出视角.
- 专注于关键的干旱相关因素,包括驱动因素,环境,载体,强度和恢复.
主要成果:
- 干旱脆弱性在42%的省份下降,在29%的省份增加,观察到总体改善.
- 漏洞的重心向西南移动,高高星团向南移动.
- 抗旱能力在36%的省份下降,在20%的省份增加,表明整体抗旱能力较差.
- 弹性的重心向北移动,具有稳定的空间模式和低低的弹性集群.
- 高脆弱性和低弹性地区集中在内陆西部和东部地区.
结论:
- 在中国干旱脆弱性和抗旱能力方面存在显著的区域差异.
- 有针对性的干旱预防和减缓对于新疆,内蒙古,江西和福建等省份至关重要.
- 该研究提供了有价值的数据,用于在减少灾害风险和可持续发展方面制定明智的政策.
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