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预计美国森林地表碳反应对气候变化和大气沉积的地理变化

Aspen Reese¹, Christopher M Clark², Jennifer Phelan³

¹American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science and Technology Policy Fellow, at the US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC, United States of America.

Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]

|May 16, 2024

概括

预计气候变化和沉积将减少美国各地的森林碳储存. 虽然减少硫沉积可能会增加碳,但到2100年,气候影响可能会超过沉积效应,需要当地森林管理战略.

科学领域:

林业和生态系统科学林业和生态系统科学
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估
生物地质化学生物地质化学

背景情况:

森林组成和生态系统服务容易受到人为压力的影响,包括气候变化和大气中 (N) 和硫 (S) 的沉积.
了解未来的森林碳动态对于有效的气候变化减缓和适应战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

在连续的美国,在县级预测地面树木碳的变化.
评估不同温度,降水和N和S沉积对森林碳储存的影响.
区分气候驱动因素对森林碳的影响与沉积到本世纪中叶和2100年.

主要方法:

扩展了最近对连续美国当前树木队伍的森林预测.
描述了县级地表树木碳的潜在变化.
分析了对不同年均温度,降水量和N和S沉积情况的情况的反应.

主要成果:

气候变化的增加通常导致地面碳减少 (RCP4.5下平均为-7.5%,RCP8.5下为-16%),相对于降低沉积和没有气候变化.
减少的N沉积减少了碳 (平均 -7%),而减少的S沉积增加了碳 (平均 +3%) 到2100年,气候驱动因素超过沉积2100年.
超过70%的县表示碳减排;观察到区域差异,东南县显示负面反应,西北/北大平原显示积极反应.

结论:

由于温度升高和N沉积减少,森林生长和生存的下降可能会超过减少S沉积和降水变化的积极影响.
预计到2100年,气候变化对森林碳的影响将超过沉积效应.
森林管理者必须考虑当地动态,以最大限度地利用森林碳汇,因为预计影响的区域差异.

关键词:

在地面上空的碳.大气中的沉积物.气候变化气候变化气候变化森林是森林,森林是森林.

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