重温代表性启发式的经典范式:复制和扩展的九个实验在卡尼曼和特弗斯基 (1972) 的复制和扩展
Lewend Mayiwar1, Kai Hin Wan2, Erik Løhre1
1Department of Leadership and Organizational Behavior, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway.
概括
这项研究成功地复制了卡尼曼和特弗斯基关于代表性启发式的发现,证明了它对概率判断的持续影响. 九个经典问题中有八个被重现,证实了决策中的认知偏见.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 卡内曼和特弗斯基1972年的开创性工作确定了代表性启发式,人们依靠相似性而不是统计信息来进行概率判断.
- 这个启发式是人类判断和决策中的各种偏见的基石解释.
- 尽管它的理论影响,直接复制卡尼曼和特弗斯基的原始问题一直缺乏.
研究的目的:
- 进行直接复制和扩展卡内曼和特弗斯基1972年关于代表性启发学的文章中的九个问题.
- 检查不同判断任务中启发式响应的一致性.
- 调查决策风格作为启发式使用的预测器.
主要方法:
- 进行了一项预先注册的在线实验,通过亚马逊MTurk在CloudResearch上招募了623名参与者.
- 来自卡尼曼和特弗斯基1972年文章的9个问题被介绍给了参与者.
- 数据分析包括复制检查,跨问题一致性分析和决策风格预测器的回归分析.
主要成果:
- 来自卡尼曼和特弗斯基原始研究的九个问题中有八个成功复制.
- 证据表明,在各种问题上,启发式响应具有一致性,这表明了稳定的认知偏差.
- 决策风格成为参与者对代表性启发式依赖的潜在预测因素.
结论:
- 正如卡内曼和特弗斯基所描述的代表性启发式,在当代概率判断中仍然是一个强大的现象.
- 这些发现支持这种启发式在理解认知偏见方面的持续相关性.
- 该研究为未来关于判断和决策的研究提供了经过验证的数据集和方法.
更多相关视频
05:48The Adventures of Fundi Intervention Based on the Cognitive and Emotional Processing in Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder Patients
Published on: June 12, 2020
5.7K
06:35Examining Recall Memory in Infancy and Early Childhood Using the Elicited Imitation Paradigm
Published on: April 28, 2016
34.0K
相关概念视频
The Availability Heuristic
6.0K
A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
6.0K
Cause and Effect
10.9K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
10.9K
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
7.2K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.2K
Hindsight Biases
3.4K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
3.4K
Reason and Intuition
6.4K
The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
6.4K
Social Proof
27.7K
Social proof is a form of persuasion based on comparison and conformity. People compare their behavior and actions to what others are doing and will change to conform to do what their peers do.
27.7K
