在预计的气候变化情景下,Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) 的预测范围扩大
Rachel R Harman1, William R Morrison1, Dalton Ludwick2,3
1USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Center for Grain and Animal Health Research, 1515 College Ave, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA.
Journal of economic entomology
|May 16, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,较大的谷物挖掘机 (Prostephanus truncatus) 正在全球范围内扩大其范围. 预计到2070年,这种入侵性害虫将占据更适合的息地,增加生物安全风险.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 较大的谷物挖掘机 (Prostephanus truncatus) 是一个来自中美洲的入侵性害虫,现在已经在非洲建立.
- 这种穿木的昆虫侵袭储存的玉米和麻豆,可以在森林环境中建立种群,导致不受影响的侵袭.
- 了解其当前和未来的分布对于管理其传播和影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模当前的全球分布 普罗斯特法努斯truncatus.
- 预测2050年和2070年的各种气候变化情景 (RCPs 2.6和8.5) 下,这种害虫的潜在未来分布.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键气候变量.
主要方法:
- 使用了WALLACE和MaxEnt建模软件.
- 纳入生物气候变量和发生记录,用于全球分布预测.
- 基于代表性度途径 (RCP) 2.6 和 8.5.5 的预测未来分布.
主要成果:
- 目前P. truncatus的高度适合地区集中在沿海和赤道地区,在南美洲,印度,东南亚,印度尼西亚和菲律宾确定了新的适合地区.
- 高度适宜的息地预计到2050年 (12-15%) 和2070年 (19%在RCP 8.5下) 显著增加.
- 分布中心正在向内陆转移,远离赤道,这表明范围扩大而不是简单的转移.
结论:
- 全球范围内,气候变化正在推动大型谷物挖掘机适合息地的显著扩张.
- 预计适合区域的增加凸显了与这种入侵性害虫相关的生物安全风险的不断升级.
- 空间明确的监测计划对于有效的害虫排除和管理策略至关重要.
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