人们不喜欢公众论,这导致了紧张的选举
O Devauchelle1, P Szymczak2, P Nowakowski3
1Université Paris Cité, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS, 1 rue Jussieu, 75238 Paris, France.
Physical review. E
|May 17, 2024
概括
社会物理模型解释了选举结果. 在伊辛模型中引入民意调查揭示了平等分配的新阶段,解释了两极分化的社会和大规模选举.
科学领域:
- 社会物理学的社会物理.
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 统计力学 统计力学
背景情况:
- 现代民主国家经常表现出紧密的选举和公投结果,表明社会分裂.
- 社会物理模型,就像伊辛模型一样,使用相互作用的代理来模拟集体行为,但通常会预测强大的多数,与观察到的紧张选举不同.
研究的目的:
- 在古典社会物理模型中引入一种新元素,以解释民意调查的影响.
- 调查集体论动态中新阶段的出现.
主要方法:
- 修改经典的伊辛格模型,以纳入民意调查的影响.
- 分析模型的阶段过渡和由此产生的社会结构.
- 模型预测与现实世界选举数据的比较.
主要成果:
- 一个新的阶段出现了,选民在两个群体之间平等地分裂.
- 这些政治上分裂的群体在空间上被隔离,有着明确的界限.
- 这种隔离状态取决于系统的大小,自20世纪90年代以来,在大量选民 (超过一百万选民) 中观察到.
结论:
- 民意调查可以将一个社会推入平等的政治分裂和空间隔离的状态.
- 过渡到这种两极分化的状态与选民对公众论的认识有关.
- 该模型为了解大型民主国家两极分化选民的动态提供了一个框架.
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