预后营养指数和功能指标的预后价值用于严重COVID-19老年患者的死亡率预测:一项回顾性研究
Angyang Cao1,2, Wenjun Luo1,2, Long Wang3
1Anesthesiology Department, the First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Zhejiang, China.
Medicine
|May 17, 2024
概括
在老年患者中确定严重COVID-19的预后因素是关键. 一种结合预后营养指数 (PNI),估计的淋巴细胞过率 (eGFR),D-二次体和乳酸脱酶 (LDH) 的新模型准确预测死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 临床医学 临床医学
背景情况:
- 严重的COVID-19对老年患者构成重大威胁.
- 营养不良和功能障碍与严重COVID-19的不良结果有关.
- 需要准确的预后工具,以便及时进行临床干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证严重COVID-19的老年患者死亡风险的预后模型.
- 纳入关键的临床和实验室参数,包括PNI和eGFR.
- 确定死亡率的独立预测因素.
主要方法:
- 对155名患有严重COVID-19的老年患者的回顾性分析.
- 后勤回归用于识别独立的死亡率预测因素.
- 开发和内部验证使用PNI,eGFR,D-二极管和LDH的联合预测器"L".
主要成果:
- 降低PNI,降低eGFR,增加D-二次数和增加LDH是死亡率的独立预测因素.
- 联合预测指标"L"显示出良好的区分 (AUC = 0.863) 和校准.
- 内部验证证实了模型的稳定性 (启动后AUC = 0.858).
结论:
- 结合PNI,eGFR,D-二次体和LDH,有效地识别高死亡风险的老年COVID-19患者.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助制定早期干预策略.
- 建议对该模型进行进一步的外部验证.
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