基于双碳背景的中国电力行业碳排放的预测分析
Ze-Qun Ding1,2, Hong-Qing Zhu2, Wei-Ye Zhou1,3
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, P.R. China.
PloS one
|May 17, 2024
概括
中国的电力部门对碳排放产生了重大影响. 经济规模驱动排放,而效率有助于减少,需要针对二重碳目标制定有针对性的战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 电力行业是中国碳排放的主要来源.
- 实现中国的双碳目标需要了解和减轻该部门的排放.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国电力部门的碳排放驱动因素.
- 评估碳排放的预测模型.
- 提出与二氧化碳目标一致的减排战略.
主要方法:
- 采用了对数平均分离指数 (LMDI) 分解分析.
- 使用STIRPAT,Logistic和GM(1,1) 模型进行碳排放预测.
- 进行了对模型准确性的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 经济规模 (114.91%) 和电力消耗 (85.17%) 是增加碳排放的主要驱动因素.
- 发电效率 (-19.15%) 有助于减少碳排放.
- 对于中长期预测,STIRPAT模型表现出卓越的准确性 (0.23%的平均相对误差).
结论:
- 经济规模是推动电力部门排放的最有影响力的因素.
- 对于准确的碳排放预测,建议使用STIRPAT模型.
- 提供了实用建议,以支持电力行业实现双碳目标.
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