在监狱环境中控制COVID-19疫情:一项数学建模研究
Neil Arvin Bretaña1, Jisoo A Kwon2, Luke Grant3
1Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Australia.
PloS one
|May 17, 2024
概括
高水平的COVID-19疫苗接种覆盖率和及时的封锁是控制监狱疫情的关键. 将这些与隔离和隔离策略相结合,可以显著减少监狱环境中的疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 惩戒设施是COVID-19爆发的高风险环境,原因是近距离和共患病.
- 有效的公共卫生策略对于监狱中控制呼吸道病原体至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在新南威尔士监狱系统中模拟SARS-CoV-2传播.
- 评估各种COVID-19缓解策略在惩戒机构中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 为澳大利亚新南威尔士州的33个惩戒中心开发了一种基于个体的SARS-CoV-2传播模型.
- 在不同的场景下模拟爆发:没有控制,隔离,隔离,测试和免疫.
主要成果:
- 如果不进行干预,预计每天感染的峰值将达到472例,所有囚犯在120日被感染.
- 高免疫覆盖率和迅速的封锁使疫情的规模减少了62-73%.
- 当免疫不是唯一的策略时,隔离,隔离和个人防护设备的使用是有效的.
结论:
- 高免疫覆盖率至关重要,但单独不足以控制监狱中的COVID-19.
- 持续的隔离,隔离和高的免疫水平将惩戒系统中的疫情风险降至最低.
- 这些发现为澳大利亚惩戒机构中呼吸道病原体的公共卫生政策提供了信息.
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