加拿大的极端温度和死亡率的双变极值分析,2000-2020年
Yuqing Zhang1, Kai Wang2,3, Junjie Ren2
1Zhejiang Lab, Kechuang Avenue, Hangzhou, 311121, China.
BMC public health
|May 18, 2024
概括
加拿大的极寒气温与过度死亡率有关,特别是在大多数地区的年轻年龄组. 极端高温对健康风险较小,除了西北太平洋等特定地区.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化通过温度,降水和空气质量加剧了健康风险.
- 了解极端温度对死亡率的影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查加拿大的过度死亡率和极端温度之间的联系 (2000-2020年).
- 在四个年龄组和五个加拿大分区中比较这些协会.
主要方法:
- 使用月度T90和T10指数进行恶劣天气监测.
- 采用了季节性自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 和双变量高峰超过值 (POT) 方法的组合方法.
- 分析了极端尾部指数和皮坎德的依赖函数图.
主要成果:
- 过度死亡率可能是极低的温度 (除了在NEA,NPL,NWP年龄在0-44岁).
- 极高的高温显示,整体上对健康的影响不那么严重 (除了北北方地区).
- 东北地区和中非地区在所有年龄段都对极端的高温和低温都有很高的脆弱性.
结论:
- 极端寒冷带来了显著的死亡风险,特别是在大多数加拿大地区的年轻人群体中.
- 需要针对NWP和CAR等脆弱地区制定有针对性的卫生战略,考虑极端的热和寒.
- 该研究强调了新型极端依赖方法对分析气候与健康相互作用的有用性.
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