基于CA的城市增长模型,考虑当地空间驱动因素的时间动态调整:在武汉市的应用
Jianwei Sun1, Qingsong He2, Haofeng Wang3,4
1School of Geographical and Environmental Sciences, Guizhou Normal University, Guizhou, Guiyang, 550025, PR China.
Heliyon
|May 20, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了一种动态的细胞自动机 (CA) 模型,该模型通过时间调整驱动因素,以模拟城市扩张. 这种方法通过捕捉环境变量的时间变化来提高与静态模型相比的准确性.
科学领域:
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 空间建模 空间建模
- 城市动态 城市动态
背景情况:
- 细胞自动机 (CA) 模型使用简单的规则模拟复杂的时空动态.
- 现有的CA方法经常使用单个时间点来确定驱动因素,无法捕捉动态变化.
- 城市扩张受到随着时间的推移而演变的许多因素的影响.
研究的目的:
- 设计一个CA模型,以动态调整的驱动因素来实现本地规模的城市扩张.
- 通过结合时间序列数据和动态因子调整来提高 CA 模拟的准确性.
- 调查时间变化的环境变量对城市发展的影响.
主要方法:
- 根据时间序列数据开发了一种CA模型,其中包含了基于时间序列数据的驱动因素的动态调整.
- 使用线性,指数式,对数式和多项式适配用于动态因子调整.
- 使用卡帕系数和R平方值分析了模拟准确性.
主要成果:
- 多项式拟合显示了最高的平均R平方,表明驱动因素的显著时间波动.
- 动态CA模型实现了0.781-0.810之间的卡帕系数,优于单个时间点方法.
- 道路密度的准确性被确定为建筑用地模拟的关键指标.
结论:
- 驱动因素的动态调整显著提高了用于城市扩张模拟的CA模型精度.
- 在微尺度上捕捉环境变量的时间演变对于准确的空间建模至关重要.
- 拟议的方法通过考虑时间依赖因素,提供了更现实的城市发展模拟.
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