2000年至2023年德国法兰克福市热相关死亡率
Ursel Heudorf1, Bernd Kowall2, Eugen Domann1
1Institute of Hygiene and Environmental Medicine, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany.
GMS hygiene and infection control
|May 20, 2024
概括
法兰克福在采取适应措施后,与热量相关的死亡人数有所减少. 虽然热浪期间的死亡率有所下降,但需要进一步的研究来确认这是由于城市干预还是一般趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 2003年欧洲的热浪导致了显著的过度死亡率 (70,000人死亡).
- 在2003年8月的热浪中,法兰克福·迈因 (Frankfurt am Main) 经历了大约200人过度死亡.
- 该市在2003年后实施了气候适应和减缓措施,以应对与热有关的健康风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查2000年至2023年法兰克福市热相关死亡率的趋势.
- 确定实施的适应和缓解措施是否减少了与热有关的死亡率.
- 评估热暴露指标对随时间推移的死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2000年到2023年,夏季月份 (六月至八月) 和特定日历周 (23-34) 的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASR) 计算.
- 与来自法兰克福气象站的气象数据相关联的死亡数据.
- 分析了各种热暴露指标 (热天,热周,热浪,热警告) 的发病率 (IR),发病率差异和发病率比率 (IRR).
主要成果:
- 在研究期间,平均每日温度上升,而整体标准化死亡率下降.
- 在热浪期间观察到的过度死亡率高达2015年,但在随后的热浪中没有.
- 与2003年相比,在2018年和2022年的热情事件中发现的发病率差异和比率明显较低,尽管热量水平相似.
结论:
- 多年来,法兰克福与热相关的死亡率有所下降,包括在高热压力时期.
- 在热情事件中减少过度死亡率表明预防措施的潜在成功,但确定的因果关系需要进一步调查.
- 建议在不同热适应策略的市镇进行比较研究,以确认实施措施的有效性.
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