登革热发病率和血清型分布的空间分析在老首都维安提安:一个多年研究
Somsouk Phanhkongsy1, Apiporn Suwannatrai2, Kavin Thinkhamrop3
1Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand.
Acta tropica
|May 20, 2024
概括
老的登革热爆发与环境因素有关,在21-30岁的女性中发病率更高. 该研究确定了特定的地区和中南部的越南为登革热传播高风险地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 老是所有四种登革热血清型的高度流行地,需要对疾病发病率进行详细的空间和时间分析.
- 影响登革热传播的因素包括病毒特征,载体生态学和环境条件,特别是在首都越南.
研究的目的:
- 从2019年到2021年,分析越南首都九个地区的登革热发病率和空间分布.
- 通过使用环境和气候数据,确定登革热发生的高概率地区.
- 了解登革热病例的人口统计和血清型流行率.
主要方法:
- 针对登革热病例,分析了Mittaphab医院 (2019-2021) 的数据.
- 使用最大 (MaxEnt) 算法来建模空间分布,并确定合适的息地.
- 环境变量,包括规范差异植被指数 (NDVI),被评估为预测能力.
主要成果:
- 登革热病例在女性 (54.88%),工人 (29.02%) 和学生 (28.47%) 中更为普遍.
- 在21-30岁年龄组 (42.23%) 观察到的感染率最高.
- 登革热血清型2在2019-2020年占主导地位,在2021年被血清型1取代. 发病率从Xaythany (2019) 转移到Chanthabouly (2020-2021). 发生率从Xaythany (2019) 转移到Chantabouly (2020-2021). 发生率从Xaythany (2019) 转移到Chantabouly (2020-2021). 发生率从Xaythany (2019) 转移到Chantabouly (2020-2021).
- 马克斯恩特认为,中南部的越南非常适合登革热,而NDVI是最好的预测因素.
结论:
- 了解登革热病例特征和空间模式对于老有效的监测和控制战略至关重要.
- 环境因素,特别是植被指数,在预测登革热发生方面发挥着重要作用.
- 对于未来的登革热预防工作,建议在确定高风险地区和地区进行有针对性的干预.
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