私营选举管理的资金在2020年是否有利于民主党人?
Apoorva Lal1, Daniel M Thompson2
1Independent Researcher, Redwood City, CA 94063.
概括
2020年,私人捐款给选举管理部门并没有显著改变总统选举结果. 尽管存在担忧,但这些赠款对投票份额和投票率的影响很小,可能太小,无法改变选举结果.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 选举管理局 选举管理局
- 统计分析 统计分析
背景情况:
- 超过3.5亿美元的私人捐款为2020年大选提供了地方选举管理的资金.
- 支持者声称赠款是中立的流行病必需品;批评者声称党派偏见和结果影响.
研究的目的:
- 确定私人选举管理拨款对2020年美国总统大选结果的影响.
- 量化这些赠款对投票份额和选民投票率的影响.
主要方法:
- 收集关于私人赠款和选举结果的行政数据.
- 采用先进的合成控制方法来比较处理和控制县.
- 分析了总统选举结果和获得补助的选民投票率,而不是类似的非受助县.
主要成果:
- 倾向于民主党的县更有可能获得补助.
- 补助金对总统选举结果没有明显的影响.
- 估计对民主党投票份额的平均影响为0.03-0.36个百分点.
- 对投票率的估计平均影响为0.03-0.14个百分点.
结论:
- 私人选举资助对2020年总统大选的影响可能太小,无法改变整体结果.
- 信任区间表明对投票份额或投票率的影响很小或没有显著影响.
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