在气候变化下,长途迁徙的水害虫Nilaparvata lugens的潜在范围变化
Jinsol Hong1, Minyoung Lee2, Yongeun Kim1
1Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
Scientific reports
|May 21, 2024
概括
气候变化正在扩大棕色植物 (BPH) 的过冬范围,这是一个主要的水害虫. 这种转变改变了区域性害虫风险,需要国际监测才能有效管理.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
背景情况:
- 昆虫害虫的生物地理范围的变化取决于温度.
- 与静止物种相比,像棕色植物 (BPH) 这样的迁徙昆虫表现出明显的范围动态.
- BPH在热带/亚热带地区过冬,并通过喷流季节性迁移到温带地区.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的气候变化场景 (RCP2.6和RCP8.5) 预测Nilaparvata lugens (BPH) 的过冬范围,用于2030年代和2080年代.
- 评估气候变化对BPH冬季适宜性的影响,并确定潜在的新可居住区域.
- 了解不同气候变化场景如何影响与BPH相关的生物地理分布和区域风险.
主要方法:
- 在特定的气候变化场景下,利用CLIMEX模型来预测过冬的地区.
- 分析了气候变化对BPH居住区和适宜性的影响,重点关注热应激效应.
- 在不同的时间点 (2030年代,2080年代) 和排放路径 (RCP2.6,RCP8.5) 中比较了预测范围的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计BPH的过冬边界将向极点转移,在中国和澳大利亚的中度出现新的地区.
- 居住区仍然相似,但由于热应激增加,近赤道地区的适宜性下降.
- 在RCP8.5-2080s下,边缘地区显著增加,而非常有利的地区与当前气候相比大幅减少.
结论:
- 气候变化是BPH范围变化的重要驱动因素,改变了其分布和区域害虫压力.
- 预计BPH分布的变化需要适应性管理策略和国际合作.
- 加强监测计划对于管理BPH范围扩大带来的新出现的挑战至关重要.
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