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政府的公共恐慌应急能力评估和应对策略在突然的流行病下:一个模糊的Petri网基于的方法
Cui Li1, Yiming Zhao2, Lei Gao1
1School of Economics and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Hebei Province, 065201, China.
Heliyon
|May 22, 2024
概括
政府需要更好的方法来管理公众的恐慌,这是一个大流行后的灾难. 本研究介绍了一种模糊的培养网方法,用于评估和改进应急管理能力,为政府提供了一套实用的工具.
科学领域:
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 系统工程 系统工程
背景情况:
- 公共恐慌是后疫情时代的重大次要灾难.
- 有效的政府应急管理能力对于缓解公众恐慌至关重要.
- 现有的评估方法与恐慌场景固有的不确定性和模糊性作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种评估政府公共恐慌应急管理能力的新方法.
- 开发一个层次评估指数系统,考虑恐慌的进化阶段.
- 使用模糊逻辑创建多种场景的紧急管理策略.
主要方法:
- 分析四个进化阶段 (孕期,爆发,扩散,色) 的公众恐慌因素.
- 建立一个等级评估指数系统,用于应急管理.
- 应用模糊的彼得里网和模糊的推理规则来处理不确定性和评估能力.
- 为各种场景制定最佳的应急管理策略.
主要成果:
- 开发了一种强有力的评估方法,用于政府公众恐慌紧急情况管理能力.
- 模糊的培养网有效地解决了评估中的不确定性,随机性和模糊性.
- 模拟表明,拟议的模糊Petri网方法优于传统方法.
- 针对不同的恐慌情景,我们得出了最佳的应急管理策略.
结论:
- 基于模糊的彼得里网络的方法为政府提供了一个实用和有效的工具包来管理公众的恐慌.
- 这种方法提高了在不确定的环境中对应急管理能力的评估.
- 该研究为公共恐慌管理提供了传统评估方法的优质替代方案.
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