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Aditya Srinivasulu^1,2, Matt R K Zeale³, Bhargavi Srinivasulu^2,4

¹Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Reading Reading UK.

Ecology and evolution

|May 22, 2024

概括

气候变化可能不会很快大幅改变南亚蝙蝠的分布,但生物多样性热点可能会缩小. 对于这些研究不足的物种,保护计划需要重新评估.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

气候变化对全球生物多样性产生重大影响,但其对南亚蝙蝠的影响仍未得到充分研究.
南亚的巨大多样性地区具有多样化的气候和植被,使蝙蝠对气候变化的反应变得不确定.

研究的目的:

评估南亚110种蝙蝠物种在气候适宜地区的预测近期变化.
了解不同气候变化情景下的蝙蝠分布和生物多样性热点的潜在变化.

主要方法:

使用四个算法 (随机森林,ANN,MARS,MaxEnt) 组合生态利基建模.
根据两个气候模型和两个SSP (SSP2,SSP5) 定义了当前的适宜区域 (1970-2000) 和预计的未来区域 (2041-2060).

主要成果:

大多数蝙蝠物种预计将保留他们目前大部分适合的区域或失去小部分.
适合地区的转移通常预计将向北发生.
预计生物多样性热点 (适合超过30%物种的区域) 的规模将减少,并变得更加分散.

结论:

近期的气候变化可能不会导致南亚蝙蝠分布的剧烈变化,但可能会导致当地生物多样性热点的丧失.
结果为保护计划提供了关键的见解,有助于重新评估南亚蝙蝠的保护优先事项和战略.

关键词:

生物气候变量生物气候变量脊椎动物 (chiroptera) 是一种动物.气候变化气候变化气候变化整体生态利基模型模型最大的最大.适合性热点是适合性的热点.

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