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极端温度和中风死亡率:来自多国分析的证据

Barrak Alahmad^1,2, Haitham Khraishah³, Meghana Kamineni⁴

¹Environmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.

|May 22, 2024

概括

极端的寒冷和高温在全球范围内增加了中风死亡率. 这项跨国研究发现,与极端温度相关的缺血性和出血性中风导致的死亡人数显著过多,这凸显了气候变化干预的必要性.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
流行病学流行病学
心血管疾病研究研究

背景情况:

极端温度是全球死亡的一个重要因素.
之前关于温度和中风结果的研究由于范围有限和方法不同而产生了相互矛盾的结果.
由于暴露定义和分析方法的不一致性,综合发现具有挑战性.

研究的目的:

在全球范围内调查极端温度与缺血性和出血性中风死亡率之间的关联.
建立与温度相关的多国中风死亡率数据的统一分析协议.
为了比较不同经济发展的国家之间的温度中风相关性.

主要方法:

一项跨国案例交叉研究使用新建立的缺血性和出血性中风死亡率数据库进行.
使用分布式滞后非线性模型的条件准松回归被应用于25个国家的522个城市的每日死亡率和温度暴露.
混合效应的元分析汇总了城市特定的累积风险,并计算了因极端温度而导致的过度死亡.

主要成果:

这项研究分析了超过340万例缺血性中风和240万例出血性中风死亡.
极度寒冷的日子与每1000例死亡中有9.1例过多的缺血性中风死亡和11.2例过多的出血性中风死亡有关.
极端炎热的日子与每1000例死亡中2.2例过度缺血性中风死亡和0.7例过度出血性中风死亡有关. 低收入国家显示,与热量相关的出血性中风死亡率的风险更高.

结论:

极端寒冷和极热的温度都显著增加了因缺血性和出血性中风死亡的风险.
气候变化引起的极端温度需要紧急的干预策略来减少中风死亡率.
需要特别注意的是,低收入国家不成比例地受到与热相关的中风死亡率的影响.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化极端的寒冷,极端的寒冷.血流性中风血流性中风缺血性中风中风温度的温度的温度的温度的温度

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