霍乱流行病学的建模技术:一个系统和批判性的审查
Leul Mekonnen Anteneh1, Bruno Enagnon Lokonon1, Romain Glèlè Kakaï1
1Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin.
Mathematical biosciences
|May 22, 2024
概括
霍乱流行病学建模使用多种方法来研究传播和控制. 未来的模型应该整合矢量传输和参数估计,以提高准确性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 霍乱模型对于理解传播动态,预测疫情和评估控制策略至关重要.
- 采用了多种不同的建模技术,需要对它们的优缺点进行审查.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地和系统地审查霍乱流行病学中使用的各种建模方法.
- 讨论不同霍乱建模技术的优点和局限性.
主要方法:
- 在主要的科学数据库 (谷歌学者,PubMed,科学直接,泰勒和弗朗西斯) 进行系统的文献搜索.
- 包括标准侧重于霍乱的动态,不包括动物,社会经济和遗传研究.
- 基于建模方法,地理分布和控制措施对476篇同行评审文章的分析.
主要成果:
- 分区模型 (52%) 是最常见的,其次是统计模型 (21%) 和空间模型 (9%).
- 亚洲和非洲是霍乱建模研究的主要地区 (分别为40%和32%).
- 有限的研究包括载体传播 (3.99%) 或专注于估计关键流行病学参数.
- 仅接种疫苗的策略是最常见的控制措施 (58%).
结论:
- 在霍乱流行病学建模中的研究生产力正在增加,利用广泛的模型.
- 未来的研究应优先考虑将载体/家传播纳入并估计关键流行病学参数.
- 改进的建模可以提高对霍乱传播动态的理解和控制.
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