在温室气体变暖下,中太平洋厄尔尼诺-南部振荡变得不那么可预测
Hui Chen1,2, Yishuai Jin3,4, Zhengyu Liu5,6
1Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Nature communications
|May 22, 2024
概括
全球变暖可能会降低中太平洋厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件的可预测性. 这种由更快的海洋变暖推动的气候变化,使得ENSO未来的预测更加具有挑战性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是热带太平洋气候变化的主要驱动因素.
- 由于全球变暖,ENSO的行为和可预测性可能会受到改变.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球变暖如何影响ENSO可预测性.
- 为了确定中太平洋 (CP) 和东太平洋 (EP) ENSO是否表现出不同的未来可预测性.
主要方法:
- 气候模型的分析来自合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6).
- 在预测的变暖情景下评估ENSO持久性和可预测性.
主要成果:
- 在全球变暖下观察到CP ENSO的持久性和可预测性大幅下降.
- 预计CP ENSO的春季可预测性障碍将增强25%.
- EP ENSO的可预测性不受全球变暖的显著影响.
结论:
- 更快的热带太平洋表面海洋变暖和增强的阻尼率降低了CP ENSO的可预测性.
- 未来的温室气体变暖对预测CP ENSO事件提出了重大挑战.
- 在CP ENSO可预测性的变化对未来的气候预测有广泛的影响.
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