HDI + ROPE决策规则在逻辑上是不连贯的,但我们可以修复它
Alexander Etz1, Adriana F Chávez de la Peña2, Luis Baroja2
1Department of Psychology, University of Texas at Austin.
Psychological methods
|May 23, 2024
概括
贝叶斯最高密度区间加实用等价区域 (HDI + ROPE) 程序用于零假设测试在逻辑上是有缺陷的. 它依赖于概率密度,而不是概率,使决策随意和科学上无关.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 贝叶斯的推理是贝叶斯的推理.
- 心理学科学 心理学科学
背景情况:
- 贝叶斯最高密度区间加实用等效区域 (HDI + ROPE) 是零假设测试的常用方法.
- 该程序将一个后面最高密度区间 (HDI) 与一个实际等效区域 (ROPE) 进行比较.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明HDI + ROPE决策规则的逻辑不一致.
- 确定这种不一致的理论基础,并提出替代方案.
主要方法:
- 对HDI + ROPE程序的理论分析.
- 检查统计模型属性,包括转换不变性.
- 区分概率密度和概率本身.
主要成果:
- HDI + ROPE程序在逻辑上是不连贯的.
- HDI缺乏转换不变性导致基于任意统计属性的决策.
- 该程序将概率密度与概率本身混为一谈.
结论:
- HDI + ROPE程序在统计上有缺陷,应该避免使用.
- 建议采用替代贝叶斯测试程序,例如量子间隔.
- 研究人员应该使用基于概率的方法,而不仅仅是密度.
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