绕道车道在没有标志的三脚交叉点的安全影响
Alena Katharina Høye1, Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll1, Rune Elvik1
1Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|May 23, 2024
概括
在没有标志的T结处的绕道车道可能会增加交通容量,但与更多的事故有关. 这项研究发现,当控制偏差时,绕道车道会增加82%的撞车事故,这表明它们对安全不利.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 道路安全分析 道路安全分析
- 交通运输规划 交通运输规划
背景情况:
- 绕道车道是一种交通工程措施,旨在增强在没有专用左转车道的无信号T十字路口的容量.
- 关于绕道车道安全影响的现有研究是有限的,并提出了不一致的发现,一些元分析表明事故减少.
- 需要进行强有力的安全评估,以考虑潜在的偏差,如内源性和回归到平均值 (RTM).
研究的目的:
- 调查挪威没有标志的T十字路口绕道车道的安全影响.
- 解决之前对绕道车道的安全评估中的不一致性和潜在偏见.
- 为了更准确地估计与绕道车道实施相关的事故风险.
主要方法:
- 开发事故预测模型,使用10年来2,227个T十字路口 (94个有绕道车道) 的数据.
- 进行前后安全分析,包括对内源性和回归到平均值 (RTM) 的控制.
- 在有绕道车道和没有绕道车道的十字路口之间的事故频率的比较,调整以考虑混因素.
主要成果:
- 事故预测模型表明,经过对内质性进行控制后,有绕道车道的T十字路口发生的事故比没有绕道车道的车道多82%.
- 经过RTM调整后的前后分析显示,绕道车道安装后,平均事故数量增加.
- 这项研究的结果与之前的研究有所不同,可能是由于对早期研究中未解决的潜在偏差的严格控制.
结论:
- 绕道车道虽然有利于交通容量,但与没有绕道的类似十字路口相比,对道路安全似乎不利.
- 增加事故风险的潜在因素包括特定地点的条件,如道路对齐和视野距离,影响后端碰撞.
- 尽管存在安全问题,但在特定情况下,绕道车道仍然可能是可行的选择,在这种情况下,容量问题至关重要,现场条件有利.
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