评估气候变化诱导的降雨趋势和变化与非参数和线性方法的Sirajganj区,孟加拉国
Chandan Mondal1,2, Md Jahir Uddin1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna, 9203, Bangladesh.
Heliyon
|May 24, 2024
概括
孟加拉国Sirajganj的降雨量显示出明显的下降趋势. 分析显示,雨天和干旱天的变化,影响了这个容易发生灾害的地区的水文规划.
科学领域:
- 气候学和气象学 气候学和气象学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 孟加拉国Sirajganj地区在经济上很重要,容易发生自然灾害.
- 现有的研究往往侧重于河流管理和洪水风险,忽视了气象时间序列数据.
- 在Sirajganj缺乏对非正常分布的降雨时间序列的广泛研究.
研究的目的:
- 从1965年到2021年,分析西拉吉吉吉的每月和每年降雨趋势和变异.
- 为了确定统计学意义和降雨模式的突然变化.
- 为该地区的水文项目规划和评估提供见解.
主要方法:
- 非参数的曼-肯达尔和森的趋势检测方法.
- 累积和图和引导用于突然变化检测.
- 一向ANOVA,Tukey的范围测试和线性回归用于数据比较和分析.
主要成果:
- 在月份和年度降雨系列中观察到的统计学上显著的下降趋势.
- 从2月,5月,7月,9月和每年确定的降雨趋势从正向负的转变.
- 在大多数月份和每年降雨量和频率中发现了显著的差异,除了例外.
结论:
- 在Sirajganj,全年降雨量正在减少.
- 冬季的干燥天数正在减少,而季风季节的雨天数正在减少.
- 这些发现对于有效规划和评估Sirajganj的水文项目至关重要.
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