排列关系与一致概率的求取:方法和建筑管理中的应用
Benjamin Ramousse1,2, Miguel Angel Mendoza-Lugo1, Guus Rongen1
1Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|May 24, 2024
概括
这项研究探讨了使用一致概率来引起对贝叶斯网络 (BNs) 具有有限数据的专家判断. 虽然有希望,但专家不确定性量化有所不同,聚合方法面临实施挑战.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
背景情况:
- 构建贝叶斯网络 (BNs) 在有限的实证数据下具有挑战性.
- 专家诱导对于参数估计至关重要,特别是在基于高斯偶数的贝叶斯网络 (GCBNs) 中的等级相关性.
- 现有的引出专家相关性的方法缺乏共识.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个框架,使用对应概率进行依赖性评估.
- 开发一个依赖性校准得分,以汇总专家的判断.
- 实施和评估GCBN在建筑资产管理中的框架.
主要方法:
- 使用一致性概率来评估变量之间的依赖性.
- 使用依赖性校准得分来汇总专家意见.
- 将框架应用于GCBN以估计空气处理单元组件条件.
主要成果:
- 专家对协同概率的提取得到了好评.
- 在专家们量化不确定性能力方面观察到显著的差异.
- 依赖性校准方法的应用受到缺少种子变量的限制.
结论:
- 协同概率显示了作为依赖性诱导的替代方案的潜力.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善专家不确定性量化和聚合方法.
- 目前的模型不推立即实际应用,因为已发现的局限性.
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