在气候变化情景下,哪个SDM模型,CLIMEX与MaxEnt,是最好的预测?全球范围内的分布在气候变化情景下?
Umer Hayat1,2, Juan Shi1, Zhuojin Wu1,2
1Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Insects
|May 24, 2024
概括
准确的害虫风险评估对于国际贸易至关重要. 这项研究使用了CLIMEX和MaxEnt模型来预测入侵昆虫Aeolesthes sarta的全球定居,在欧洲和北美发现未来适合性增加.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 准确的害虫风险评估对于国家植物保护组织和国际贸易协定至关重要.
- 林业商品可能是害虫的庇护所,导致进口国家的意外引入.
- Aeolesthes sarta是一种重要的隔离害虫,影响各种硬木,包括Populus和Salix物种.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候条件下,评估和绘制Aeolesthes sarta潜在定居的全球模式.
- 为了比较机制性 (CLIMEX) 和相关性 (MaxEnt) 利基模型在害虫风险评估中的预测能力.
- 为了确定影响Aeolesthes sarta.全球分布的关键环境变量.
主要方法:
- 采用机械 (CLIMEX) 和相关 (MaxEnt) 利基建模方法.
- 使用特定物种的生理耐受性值,校准了CLIMEX.
- 用于MaxEnt模型校准的物种发生率和空间气候数据.
主要成果:
- 无论是CLIMEX和MaxEnt模型都准确地预测了亚洲已知的Aeolesthes sarta的分布.
- CLIMEX预计全球分布比MaxEnt更广泛,中半球和南半球有合适的地区.
- 预计未来的气候变化会稍微增加全球分布范围,预计欧洲和北美地区会有适当的条件.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型为Aeolesthes sarta.的全球建立风险提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些发现可以帮助监测潜在的害虫引入,并为害虫管理策略提供信息.
- 政策制定者和贸易谈判者可以在国际贸易协定中使用这些模型做出基于科学的决策.
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