在经济不确定性和新加坡旅游业发展之间进行时间变化的分析
Bui Hoang Ngoc1, Canh Chi Hoang2, Nguyen Huynh Mai Tram3
1Faculty of Business Administration, Ho Chi Minh City University of Industry and Trade, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
PloS one
|May 24, 2024
概括
经济政策的不确定性 (EPU) 在短期内对旅游发展 (TO) 有负面影响. 然而,从长远来看,旅游业的发展可以减少经济政策的不确定性,特别是在COVID-19后.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 旅游学研究 旅游学研究
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 经济政策的不确定性 (EPU) 对旅游发展 (TO) 构成风险.
- 以前的研究往往忽略了EPU和TO之间的时间频率动态.
- 新加坡的旅游业需要对这些相互依存的细微了解.
研究的目的:
- 在新加坡,调查EPU,工业生产指数 (IPI),政府收入 (GR) 和TO之间的因果关系.
- 分析这些关系跨越不同的时间地平线 (短期,中期,长期).
- 为战略旅游发展规划提供见解.
主要方法:
- 波形工具分析以分解各种时间频率尺度上的指数.
- 滚动窗口算法检查不断演变的因果关系.
- 分析2003年1月至2022年2月的数据.
主要成果:
- 在不同的时间范围内,EPU对TO产生异质的影响.
- 短期:EPU的增加导致TO (低频) 的下降.
- 长期: TO 的增加导致 EPU 的下降. 观察到从TO到EPU,GR和IPI的单向因果关系.
- 在COVID-19后,消极的协同运动加剧了,特别是在低中频率的EPU和GR.
结论:
- 经济政策的不确定性在短期和长期内显著影响到旅游业的发展.
- 旅游业的发展可以作为经济政策不确定性的稳定因素.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了关键的见解,以减轻风险,并在经济不确定性中加强旅游战略.
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