使用改进的灰色预测模型预测中国建筑业的碳排放
Jia-Bao Liu1, Xi-Yu Yuan1, Chien-Chiang Lee2
1School of Mathematics and Physics, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China.
The Science of the total environment
|May 24, 2024
概括
中国建筑行业的碳排放量将增加,但增速较慢,间接排放量更多. 地区差异仍然存在,东部地区的排放量更多,但增长速度比西部地区慢.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 建筑行业是全球能源消耗和温室气体排放的主要贡献者.
- 了解建筑业碳排放趋势对于节能和减排战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用先进的建模技术,预测中国建筑业的碳排放.
- 分析中国各省碳排放的区域差异及其增长率.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国国家和省级建筑部门 (2012-2021) 的碳排放数据.
- 采用灰色预测模型,通过粒子群优化和预测代谢算法进行优化.
- 将动态灰色预测模型的预测精度与经典模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 优化的动态灰色预测模型显著提高了准确性,将相对误差从5.103%降至0.874%.
- 预计未来十年,中国建筑碳排放量将继续增长,尽管速度正在下降,间接排放量也在增加.
- 发现了显著的区域差异:东部排放量较高,增长速度较慢,西部排放量较低,增长速度较快.
结论:
- 先进的灰色预测模型为建筑碳排放预测提供了卓越的准确性.
- 未来的政策应应对建筑相关碳排放的上升趋势和区域差异.
- 洞察力支持建筑部门加强节能和减少排放的努力.
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