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匈牙利ICU设置中的COVID-19死亡率预测实施随机森林算法
Ágoston Hamar1,2, Daryan Mohammed2, Alex Váradi2,3
1Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
Scientific reports
|May 24, 2024
概括
新的SARS-CoV-2变种影响了ICU患者的人口统计和结果. 糖尿病增加了死亡风险,而疫苗接种提供了保护. 一个随机的森林模型准确地预测了COVID-19的ICU死亡率.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 基因组学就是基因组学.
背景情况:
- 新出现的SARS-CoV-2令人担忧的变种 (VOCs) 改变了重症监护室 (ICU) 人口统计数据.
- SARS-CoV-2 基因型与ICU 致死率之间的相关性需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 分析与SARS-CoV-2变种基因型和ICU致死率相关的临床和实验室参数.
- 在ICU患者中开发SARS-CoV-2致死率的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 在匈牙利对503名COVID-19ICU患者 (2021年1月至2022年11月) 的回顾性研究.
- 在649名ICU患者中实施随机森林 (RF) 模型来预测死亡率.
- 生存分析比较高血压 (HT),糖尿病 (DM) 和疫苗接种的影响.
主要成果:
- 糖尿病是一种显著的死亡风险因素 (OR:1.55,p=0.025).
- 疫苗接种证明了对死亡率的保护作用 (p=0.028).
- 射频模型在预测死亡率方面取得了81.42%的准确性,主要预测因素包括PaO2/FiO2比率,淋巴细胞计数和CTSS.
结论:
- 虽然Omicron变种可能需要更少的ICU治疗,但住院患者的存活率并没有相应增加.
- 开发的RF模型可以帮助ICU COVID-19患者的临床决策.
- 了解变异对ICU结果的影响对于患者管理至关重要.
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