基于PLUS和InVEST模型的尤林市息地质量的进化特征和多场景预测
Shifeng Li1, Zenglin Hong2,3, Xuping Xue4
1School of Land Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Scientific reports
|May 24, 2024
概括
林市的快速城市化导致生态土地收缩和息地质量下降. 未来发展情景显示,到2035年,可能有息地改善,平衡城市增长与生态安全.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 城市规划是城市规划.
- 环境科学环境科学
背景情况:
- 玉林市是一个主要的能源中心,由于经济快速发展和城市化而面临生态挑战.
- 了解土地使用变化对息地质量的影响对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析20年来林市息地质量的时空演变.
- 预测未来的土地使用变化及其在不同发展情景下对息地质量的影响.
- 为林市的生态保护政策提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 为了进行土地使用模拟,利用了补丁生成土地使用变化模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
- 采用了生态系统服务和权衡综合评估 (InVEST) 模型来评估息地质量.
- 分析了1995年,2005年和2015年的土地使用数据,并模拟了2035年的场景.
主要成果:
- 玉林市的建筑用地在20年内增加了380.87平方公里,而生态用地减少了.
- 玉林市的息地质量一般为中等,显示出整体下降趋势.
- 息地质量退化从西方到东方下降;未来的情景表明,到2035年,可能会有所改善.
结论:
- 土地使用变化对林市的息地质量产生了重大影响.
- 可持续的城市经济发展场景可以提高息地质量,同时满足发展需求.
- 该研究为林市的生态保护政策和土地空间规划提供了参考.
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