在接受COVID-19疫苗接种的老年痴呆症成年人中模拟死亡率预测
Zorian Radomyslsky1,2, Sara Kivity3, Yaniv Alon4
1Maccabi Healthcare Services, 6812509, Tel Aviv-Jaffa, Israel. radomysl_z@mac.org.il.
BMC geriatrics
|May 24, 2024
概括
接种COVID-19疫苗显著降低了老年人,尤其是认知障碍患者的死亡风险. 预测模型识别了针对性干预的高风险个体,提高了生存率.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 老年人,特别是那些有认知障碍的人,面临更高的COVID-19严重结果的风险.
- 疫苗接种是缓解弱势群体COVID-19严重性的关键策略之一.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较接种疫苗的和未接种疫苗的老年人 (65岁以上) 的COVID-19结果,有和没有认知障碍.
- 评估机器学习模型在预测死亡风险方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 从以色列 (2020年3月至2022年2月) 的大量队列 (N=85,288) 中分析电子健康记录.
- 机器学习模型的开发和评估 (XGBoost与治疗权重的逆概率) 用于死亡风险预测.
- 检查COVID-19疫苗接种后的死亡率和住院率.
主要成果:
- 接种COVID-19疫苗显示,认知障碍的老年人死亡风险显著降低,生存率提高到93%.
- 用治疗权重的逆概率增强的XGBoost模型对于死亡率预测非常有效 (AUC-PR = 0.89).
- 疫苗接种在降低死亡率和为高风险人群提供有针对性的医疗干预方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
结论:
- 接种COVID-19疫苗在减少认知障碍的老年人中不良结果方面非常有效.
- 使用机器学习的预测分析可以识别有针对性干预的高风险个体,从而增强公共卫生策略.
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