可解释的机器学习模型用于预测老年ICU患者抗生素相关腹的发生率
Yating Cui1,2, Yibo Zhou1,2, Chao Liu1,2
1Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, 100853, China.
BMC geriatrics
|May 24, 2024
概括
在老年重症监护室 (ICU) 患者中预测与抗生素相关的腹 (AAD) 是至关重要的. 一个可解释的极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 模型显示了在这个脆弱人群中AAD发病率的优异预测性能.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
背景情况:
- 与抗生素相关的腹 (AAD) 对老年重症监护室 (ICU) 患者构成重大风险,包括长时间住院和增加死亡率.
- 准确预测AAD发病率对于及时干预和改善患者结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种可解释和可概括的预测模型,用于老年ICU患者的AAD发病率.
- 利用机器学习,在重症监护机构加强临床决策.
主要方法:
- 追溯分析了848名成年ICU患者的数据.
- 开发和评估一个极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 模型.
- 在模型可解释性方面应用沙普利的附加解释方法.
主要成果:
- XGBoost模型实现了高预测性能,接收器运行特征曲线 (ROC) 下的面积为0.917.
- 关键性能指标包括灵敏度 (0.889),特异性 (0.806),准确度 (0.870) 和F1得分 (0.780).
- 在预测AAD时,XGBoost的性能优于逻辑回归,支向量机,K-最近邻居和平面贝叶斯模型.
结论:
- 与其他评估模型相比,XGBoost模型在老年ICU患者中对AAD发病率的预测能力优越.
- 该模型的可解释性提高了其在基于患者特征预测AAD风险的临床实用性.
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