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区域间传染病进出口的空间相互作用分析
Mingdong Lyu1, Kuofu Liu2, Randolph W Hall2
1National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Mobility, Behavior, and Advanced Powertrains Department, Denver, CO 80401, USA.
概括
人类旅行显著影响传染病的传播. 这项研究开发了一个模型来评估美国各州之间的COVID-19传播风险,确定高风险地区和流行病控制的时间趋势.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人类旅行是传染病地理传播的主要驱动因素.
- 了解旅行模式和疾病传播之间的关系对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 随着COVID-19的流行,人们迫切需要使用定量工具来评估与旅行相关的疾病传播风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用新的模型和指标来分析区域间旅行在疾病传播中的作用.
- 为了量化传染病 (COVID-19) 在美国不同地区之间传播的风险.
- 为决策者提供一个工具,通过评估旅行对疾病动态的影响来为疫情控制战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 开发一个包含空间相互作用的多区域,时间变化的分区疾病模型.
- 将分区模型与区域间旅行数据的统计估计集成.
- 导出"传染进口指数"以评估和排名国家之间疾病引入的风险.
主要成果:
- 确定特定的美国州,这些州在每个月的时间范围内具有向其他州传播COVID-19的高风险.
- 分析2020年整个传输进口指数的时间变化,说明动态风险模式.
- 量化区域间旅行对整体疾病传播动态的相对贡献.
结论:
- 区域间旅行是COVID-19等传染病的时空传播的一个重要因素.
- 开发的传输进口指数为评估和预测疾病传播风险提供了有价值的指标.
- 该模型是公共卫生官员设计有针对性的干预措施和有效管理疫情控制工作的关键工具.
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