不自然流行病风险评估的数学模型和分析工具:一个范围审查
1Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
Frontiers in public health
|May 27, 2024
概括
本研究审查了用于预测和管理非自然流行病 (UE) 的模型和工具. 数学方法可以将UE与自然流行病区分开来,指导更好的预警系统.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 非自然流行病 (UE) 在预测,早期预警和风险评估方面带来了重大挑战.
- 这些挑战是欧盟预防和控制研究的核心.
研究的目的:
- 进行欧盟风险评估模型和分析工具的范围审查.
- 确定目前监控系统来监测UE.
- 在建模和预警值中探索自然流行病和UEE之间的区别.
主要方法:
- 从主要数据库 (PubMed,科学网,Scopus,Embase) 到2023年12月的文献综合范围审查.
- 包括符合预定义标准的66项研究.
- 识别和分类数据驱动和基于机制的模型,风险评估工具和监控系统.
主要成果:
- 确定了两个主要的模型类型 (数据驱动和基于机制的) 和风险评估工具,用于UE.
- 模型验证包括校准,改进和比较.
- 报道了三个监控系统 (基于事件,基于指标,混合) 用于UE监控.
- 数学模型和分析工具表明,与自然流行病相比,UE具有不同的参数和警告值.
结论:
- 数学模型和分析工具可以区分自然流行病和非自然流行病.
- 未来的研究应该整合基于机制的和数据驱动的模型来进行先进的,随时间变化的风险评估.
- 在风险评估中提高准确性对于有效的UE预防和控制至关重要.
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