使用频率主义者与贝叶斯式零假设测试来比较研究人员的二分论思维程度
Jasmine Muradchanian1, Rink Hoekstra2, Henk Kiers2
1Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands. jasmine.muradchanian@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|May 27, 2024
概括
研究人员通常依赖于假设测试. 这项研究发现"悬崖效应",即对积极效应的信念的急剧下降,在p值比贝叶斯因子更常见,这表明统计解释的差异.
科学领域:
- 社会和行为科学 社会和行为科学
- 统计推理 统计推理
- 心理学研究方法 心理学研究方法
背景情况:
- 假设测试在社会科学和行为科学中是至关重要的.
- 对 p 值和贝叶斯因子等统计证据的解释对研究人员来说至关重要.
- 了解统计证据如何影响对效应的信念是很重要的.
研究的目的:
- 调查统计证据与研究人员对积极效应的信念之间的关系.
- 为了检查"悬崖效应" - - 在统计值 (例如,p=0.05) 周围的信念急剧下降.
- 为了比较p值与贝叶斯因子之间的这种效应,并评估呈现模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了一项涉及139名参与者的研究 (N=139).
- 参与者对积极影响的信念程度与统计证据相对衡量.
- 该研究比较了p值和贝叶斯因子,以及两个呈现模式 (隐式与显式函数形式).
主要成果:
- 与贝叶斯因子相比,在使用p值的条件下观察到"悬崖效应"的比例更高.
- 没有明确的证据表明呈现模式影响了悬崖效应的比例.
- 该研究提供了关于研究人员如何解释不同的统计指标的见解.
结论:
- 解释统计证据,特别是p值,可能会导致研究人员的信念产生"悬崖效应".
- 与p值相比,贝叶斯因子似乎不太容易发生这种基于值的急剧信念转变.
- 可能需要进一步的研究来澄清陈述模式对统计解释的影响.
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