将PSO和SVR同化为一个改进的ARIMA模型,用于每月降水预测
Laleh Parviz1, Mansour Ghorbanpour2
1Faculty of Agriculture, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran. laleh_parviz@yahoo.com.
Scientific reports
|May 27, 2024
概括
使用改进的ARIMA (IARIMA) 模型实现了准确的每月降水预报. 在降水预测方面,IARIMA-C粒子群集优化 (PSO) 方法表现出优于IARIMA-支持向量回归 (SVR) 的性能.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气象学 天气学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 降水预测是复杂的,需要先进的建模.
- 传统模型在准确预测降水模式方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估改进的模型,以准确的每月降水预测.
- 为了比较基于IARIMA的两种新的降雨预测程序的有效性.
主要方法:
- 实施了一个改进的ARIMA (IARIMA) 模型.
- 使用了两个程序:IARIMA-SVR (支持向量回归) 和IARIMA-C-PSO (预测组合与粒子优化).
- 评估模型使用诸如Theil系数,平均相对差异,正常化平均平方误差和剩余预测偏差 (RPD) 等指标.
主要成果:
- IARIMA-SVR改善了评估指标,将Theil系数降低了21.14%,平均相对差异降低了17.06%.
- 一般来说,IARIMA-C-PSO的表现优于IARIMA-SVR,正常化平均平方误差降低了39.92%,而IARIMA-SVR的平均平方误差降低了36.72%.
- IARIMA-C-PSO实现了超过2的RPD,这表明在伊朗北部所有四个测试站的模型性能都很高.
结论:
- IARIMA-C-PSO模型在每月降水预测准确度方面取得了重大进展.
- 改进的ARIMA模型对于识别结构和预测月度时间序列数据是有效的.
- 班达尔安扎利站在测试地点中表现最好.
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