根据气候变化情景,作物用水需求和灌计划,以及kulfo下流域的最佳作物土地分配
Birara Gebeyhu Reta1, Samuel Dagalo Hatiye1, Mekuanent Muluneh Finsa2
1Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|May 28, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加作物用水需求,减少埃塞俄比亚南部的灌间隔. 对番茄,玉米和西瓜的最佳土地分配可以提高农业生产率和农民的利益.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 埃塞俄比亚低库尔福流域的作物用水需求和灌时间表在气候变化下缺乏评估.
- 低于最佳的土地分配对该地区的作物生产率构成挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对未来作物用水需求和灌时间表的影响.
- 优化耕地分配以提高农业生产率.
主要方法:
- 气候模型数据 (CMhyd) 修正了预测降水和温度.
- 农作物用水评估工具 (CWAT) 估计了农作物用水需求.
- 一般代数建模系统 (GAMS) 在两个场景下优化了土地分配.
主要成果:
- 预计参考蒸发透气量将增加11.9% (2030-2050年) 和16.2% (2060-2080年).
- 季节性作物总用水需求预计将增加,需要更短的灌间隔 (分别为7天和5天).
- 对番茄,玉米和西瓜的最佳土地分配带来了显著的净收益,其中情景1显示出更高的回报.
结论:
- 气候变化需要适应灌和作物选择在下库尔福水域的战略.
- 多样化作物,包括玉米,西红和西瓜,对于当地粮食安全和经济效益至关重要.
- 调查结果支持决策者推广适应气候的农业和农民培训计划.
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