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在感染监测中检测出人口趋势的变化,以社区SARS-CoV-2流行为例

Emma Pritchard^1,2, Karina-Doris Vihta^1,2,3, David W Eyre^2,4,5

¹Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7BN, United Kingdom.

American journal of epidemiology

|May 29, 2024

概括

检测传染病增长率的变化对于公共卫生至关重要. 通用增材模型 (GAMs) 和代序列回归 (ISR) 可以几乎实时检测SARS-CoV-2生长率的变化.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
生物统计学生物统计学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

监测传染病动态,如SARS-CoV-2,对于有效的公共卫生干预措施至关重要.
新变种的出现需要强大的方法来检测疾病增长率的变化.

研究的目的:

为了比较代顺序回归 (ISR) 和通用添加模型 (GAM) 在检测SARS-CoV-2增长率的变化点方面的性能.
评估这些方法的及时性和一致性,以便近乎实时的流行病监测.

主要方法:

利用了来自英国COVID-19感染调查 (2020年8月 - 2022年6月) 的聚合酶链反应 (PCR) 数据.
应用代顺序回归 (ISR) 和通用增量模型 (GAM) 的第二导数来识别增长率变化点.
对比了两种方法之间的变化点检测的一致性和及时性.

主要成果:

GAM检测到主要变异关联变化点的中位数比ISR早4天.
由GAMs确定的一些变化点并未被ISR或扩展数据一致检测到.
这两种方法都在发生3-5周后检测到变化点,有可能在子组中更早检测到.

结论:

无论是ISR还是GAM (第二衍生品),都能够近乎实时地检测SARS-CoV-2的生长率变化点.
同时使用ISR和GAM可以提高确定性,识别流行病轨迹的转变.
及时检测增长率变化对于为公共卫生战略和政策决策提供信息至关重要.

关键词:

这是一种SARS-CoV-2感染.变化点检测变化点检测社区监督是指社区监督.实时监控实时监控

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