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全球非传染性疾病负担归因于功能障碍,预计到2040年
Jing Chen1, Chunyang Li2, Ci Li Nong Bu1
1Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China.
Chinese medical journal
|May 29, 2024
概括
由于功能障碍导致的非传染性疾病 (NCD) 的全球负担显著增加,死亡率和因残疾而调整的寿命年数 (DALYs) 增加. 需要采取紧急行动,特别是在较低社会经济水平的地区,以应对这种日益严重的公共卫生危机.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
背景情况:
- 与功能障碍相关的非传染性疾病 (NCD) 呈现出全球显著的时空差异.
- 可归因于功能障碍的疾病负担已被不充分评估.
- 了解这些趋势对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估与功能障碍相关的非传染性疾病的全球负担的时空趋势.
- 预测功能障碍所导致的非传染性疾病的未来发展轨迹.
- 为有针对性的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2019年全球疾病,伤害和风险因素负担研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 计算了使用线性回归计算的死亡率和DALYs年龄标准化率 (ASR) 的估计年百分比变化 (EAPC).
- 采用贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型来预测到2040年的未来趋势.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2019年间,由功能障碍引起的非传染性疾病导致的全球死亡和DALY增加了一倍.
- 死亡和DALY的ASR在几个地区增加,包括拉丁美洲,东南亚,大洋洲和撒哈拉以南非洲.
- 在社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 和ASR之间观察到负相关性;未来的预测表明,到2040年,病例将大幅增加.
结论:
- 由功能障碍引起的非传染性疾病代表着一个重大的,不断升级的全球公共卫生挑战.
- 有针对性的干预措施对于减轻日益增加的死亡和残疾负担至关重要.
- 需要特别关注SDI低,SDI低至中等的地区,以减少差异.
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