开发和验证一个预测模型的脆弱性在乳腺癌患者延长存活时间的预测模型
Shurui Wang1,2,3, Difei Huang1, Xiaofeng Liu4
1Department of General Surgery, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
概括
结合患者和疾病因素的新模型准确地识别了乳腺癌 (BC) 幸存者的脆弱性. 这种工具有助于为这个弱势群体制定早期查和预防策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌 (BC) 患者的延长生存时间与脆弱性增加有关.
- 脆弱性在管理长期BC幸存者方面构成了重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的预测模型,用于识别延长生存期的BC患者的脆弱性.
- 整合社会人口因素 (SF) 和疾病相关因素 (DRF) 以改善脆弱性评估.
主要方法:
- 一项涉及1167名BC患者的横截面研究.
- 开发了三种预测模型:SF模型,DRF模型和联合SF+DRF模型.
- 模型性能使用ROC曲线,校准图和DCA进行评估,然后进行外部验证.
主要成果:
- 在延长生存期的BC患者中,虚弱的发生率为35.8%.
- 确定了六个独立的风险因素:年龄,健康状况,化疗,内分泌疗法,并发症的数量和口服药物.
- 组合模型显示了高的分辨准确性 (AUC培训:0.754,AUC验证:0.805) 和临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发了一种新的,经过验证的模型,用于延长生存期的BC患者的虚弱查.
- 这种模型可以支持基于证据的策略,在这个人群中进行脆弱查和预防.
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