早期流行病的出现失败:一个数学建模方法
1Institut Pasteur, Unité d'Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, Paris, France.
PloS one
|May 29, 2024
概括
使用马尔科夫链建模的病原体的出现表明,原始病原体的繁殖数量是流行病潜力的关键,而不是突变率. 在宿主体内的高突变概率对于中性突变来启动流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 进化的动力学 进化的动力学
背景情况:
- 病原体的出现,一种难以传播的病原体的演变成为引起流行病的菌株,通常是使用分支过程来建模的.
- 肯德尔和巴特利特之前在疾病入侵方面的工作为了解流行病动态提供了基础.
研究的目的:
- 用马尔科夫链来分析病原体的出现,以获得更容易处理的数学框架.
- 概括以前的疾病入侵模型,并探索病原体出现的概率.
主要方法:
- 利用马尔科夫链来模拟病原体的出现,概括了之前的分支过程模型.
- 分析了在流行病早期阶段出现失败的概率,感染人数有限,易感人数众多.
- 在不同的突变场景下考虑直接传播和载体传播的疾病.
主要成果:
- 原始病原体的基本繁殖数显著影响出现的概率,超过突变率和出现的菌株传播能力.
- 对于中性突变来启动流行病,感染个体内的足够高的突变率是必要的,值取决于原始病原体的繁殖数.
- 对不同传输机制适用的出现故障概率获得的分析结果.
结论:
- 原始病原体的生殖能力是病原体出现的关键决定因素.
- 主体内的突变动力学起着至关重要的作用,特别是在经历中性进化的病原体中.
- 开发的形式主义提供了对动物感染 (例如,SARS-CoV-1) 和耐药性 (例如,HIV) 的出现的见解.
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