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跨境政治竞争 跨境政治竞争
Jose Segovia-Martin1,2, Óscar Rivero3,4
1School of Collective Intelligence, M6 Polytechnic University, Rabat, Morocco.
PloS one
|May 29, 2024
概括
跨境信息通过影响意识形态传播,显著影响选举结果. 外国支持可能会改变结果,由于加强党派招募,美国选民投票率预计将增加.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 越来越多的全球新闻曝光集中在意识形态团体内.
- 了解跨境信息对意识形态传播的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟跨境意识形态传播的非线性动态.
- 分析外国支持对国家选举结果的影响.
- 预测未来投票率和政治不满的趋势.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个非线性数学模型,用于两种意识形态的传播.
- 采用了决定性和随机的微分方程.
- 利用Runge-Kutta数值方法,并将模型与美国选举数据 (1932-2020) 相匹配.
主要成果:
- 少数民族意识形态的影响力中的小变化可以改变全球政治平衡.
- 跨境影响是选举结果的一个基本因素,独立于国内能力.
- 预计美国选民投票率将超过非选民的增长,这是由于党派招募的增加.
结论:
- 跨境的意识形态影响是政治动态的强大决定因素.
- 外国支持可以影响国家选举.
- 随着政党加强招募非党派人士,政治不满可能会减少.
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