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城市一级可以实现COVID-19群体免疫吗?

Yuval Arbel¹, Yifat Arbel², Amichai Kerner³

¹Sir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, Acre, Israel.

|May 29, 2024

概括

实现针对COVID-19的群体免疫力需要对71%的城市人口进行疫苗接种. 这种疫苗接种率显著降低了发病率,防止了广泛的病毒传播和全市封锁的需要.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
疫苗学疫苗学疫苗学

背景情况:

由于COVID-19的流行,需要了解群体免疫值,以便有效控制.
疫苗接种策略对于缓解SARS-CoV-2传播及其对城市人口的影响至关重要.

研究的目的:

估计城市一级实现针对SARS-CoV-2的群体免疫力所需的疫苗接种率.
使用二次模型建模疫苗接种率和COVID-19发病率之间的关系.

主要方法:

利用了以色列卫生部关于瑞公司BNT162b2 mRNA疫苗的数据.
开发了两种二级模型,一个用于每个疫苗剂量,病率作为依赖变量.
独立变量包括第一和第二次疫苗接种率及其平方值.

主要成果:

据估计,当71%的城市人口接种疫苗时,可以实现群体免疫.
71%的疫苗接种率与每10,000人中大约有5例活跃的COVID-19病例有关.
这意味着在零疫苗接种率下,每10,000人中有53-67例病例显著减少.

结论:

疫苗接种对于实现对COVID-19的城市群体免疫力至关重要.
城市群体免疫,在持续的互动期间以包含的传播为特征,可以防止需要城市级限制,如锁定.

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