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在气候变暖下,非洲土地利用的预测模式
Ibrahim Yahaya1,2, Runhong Xu3, Jian Zhou1
1Research Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance, Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science Nanjing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Scientific reports
|May 29, 2024
概括
非洲未来的土地利用变化显示出显著的转变,荒地和森林土地减少,而耕地,草原和城市地区扩大. 这些预测突出了生物多样性和生态系统功能面临的潜在风险,这是由于广泛的土地转换,特别是从荒地转化为耕地.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
- 土地使用建模 土地使用建模
背景情况:
- 土地利用变化是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素.
- 预测非洲未来的土地使用对于气候变化适应至关重要,但面临着重大不确定性.
- 很少有全面的研究集中在非洲大陆的土地利用预测上.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种未来的气候和社会经济情景,预测非洲的土地利用和土地利用转让变化.
- 为了比较七个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景 (SSP1-1.9至SSP5-8.5) 的土地使用预测的表现.
- 分析人口,GDP和土地利用变化之间的关系,特别是耕地和荒地.
主要方法:
- 利用2020年的土地使用观察数据来验证模拟的土地使用预测.
- 采用七个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景来模拟2015年至2100年的土地使用变化.
- 未来三个时间段的土地利用变化预测:2021-2040,2041-2060,以及2081-2100.
主要成果:
- 在2020年非洲的观测和模拟土地使用数据之间发现了强烈的相关性 (0.89).
- 预计到2100年,荒地 (高达16%) 和森林土地 (高达38%) 将大幅减少.
- 到2100年,农田 (高达105%),草原 (高达11%) 和城市土地 (高达450%) 预计将大幅增加.
- 主要的土地使用转移是从荒地转移到农田的情况,SSP4-3.4显示最少的转移.
- 人口和GDP与耕地和荒地变化相关.
结论:
- 预计的土地利用变化,特别是荒地转化为耕地,对非洲的生物多样性构成重大风险.
- 这些土地利用转变可能会对非洲生态系统的功能完整性产生负面影响.
- 了解特定场景的土地利用轨迹对于非洲的可持续发展和保护规划至关重要.
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