使用贝叶斯方法评估2019-2020年东埃塞俄比亚住院患者的生存时间:一项回顾性队列研究
Chalachew Gashu1, Yoseph Kassa1, Habtamu Geremew2
1Department of Statistics College of Natural and Computational Science, Oda Bultum University Chiro Ethiopia.
Health science reports
|May 30, 2024
概括
严重的急性营养不良严重影响五岁以下儿童的生存率. 诸如年龄,温度和并发症等因素缩短了生存时间,需要早期检测和社区管理.
科学领域:
- 儿科 儿科 儿科
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 营养不良研究 营养不良研究
背景情况:
- 严重急性营养不良 (SAM) 是一个关键的全球卫生问题,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家.
- 五岁以下的儿童特别容易受到SAM的危及生命的影响.
研究的目的:
- 确定诊断为严重急性营养不良的五岁以下儿童的生存时间.
- 确定影响小儿SAM病例生存时间的因素.
主要方法:
- 埃塞俄比亚Chiro医院对322名SAM住院患者进行回顾性队列研究 (2019年9月 - 2020年8月).
- 使用卡普兰-梅尔图,日志等级测试,考克斯比例危险和贝叶斯参数生存模型进行生存分析.
主要成果:
- 观察到的死亡率为36.6% (322名患者中118名).
- 住院SAM患者的中位生存时间估计为2周.
- 影响生存的关键因素包括年龄,体温,脉率,鼻胃管的使用,低血糖,贫血,腹,脱水,疟疾和肺炎.
结论:
- 24个月以下的儿童,有改变的生命体征,需要鼻胃管养,患有低血糖症,或患有贫血,腹,脱水,疟疾和肺炎等并发症,面临SAM的生存率降低.
- 有效的社区管理策略,重点是早期检测和改善对护理的准入,对于降低五岁以下严重急性营养不良儿童的死亡率至关重要.
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