将内生人类行为纳入COVID-19传播模型:系统范围审查
Alisa Hamilton1,2, Fardad Haghpanah1, Alexander Tulchinsky1
1One Health Trust, 5636 Connecticut Avenue NW, PO Box 4235, Washington, DC 20015, USA.
Dialogues in health
|May 30, 2024
概括
与外源方法不同,将人类行为内源地纳入传染病模型可以改善未来的流行病预测. 具有适应性行为的模型显示延迟的峰值和随后的波浪,有助于准备.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 对于COVID-19的动态预测模型在预测疾病轨迹方面取得了混合的成功.
- 预测个人的行为证明是一个重大挑战.
- 现有的模型经常在模拟中将行为纳入外部,而不是动态.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间包括适应性 (内源性) 行为元素的传染病模型进行定性表征.
- 将这些模型根据它们的行为结合方法进行分类.
主要方法:
- 进行了对92项研究的系统审查.
- 研究被分为三个主要方法:反循环,游戏/实用理论和信息/意见传播.
- 常见的建模技术包括分隔式,网络式,基于代理的和系统动态模型.
主要成果:
- 反循环是最常见的方法 (72%),其次是游戏/实用理论 (27%) 和信息/意见传播 (9%).
- 分区模型被广泛使用 (89%).
- 结合内源性行为的模型往往预测较小,延迟的初始峰值和随后的周期性波比没有.
结论:
- 外源性整合行为可能导致不准确的疾病负担估计.
- 内生行为建模为预测流行病结果提供了更有效的方法.
- 未来的传染病模型应该优先考虑内源性行为,以提高准备和应对策略.
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