抑制或促进:中国人口老龄化和经济发展
1School of International Education, Jiangxi Science & Technology Normal University, Nanchan, Jiangxi Province, China.
PloS one
|May 30, 2024
概括
人口老龄化显著阻碍经济发展,但增加的卫生支出可以减轻这种影响. 然而,老龄化也削弱了医疗保健支出.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 人口统计数据 人口统计数据
背景情况:
- 全球人口老龄化是一个重大挑战,尤其对像中国这样人口密的国家来说.
- 了解人口变化和经济轨迹之间的相互作用对于政策制定至关重要.
- 卫生支出在调解人口老龄化的经济影响方面的作用需要经验研究.
研究的目的:
- 研究人口老龄化与中国经济发展之间的关系.
- 在人口老龄化背景下,评估卫生支出对经济增长的影响.
- 为政策干预提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国30个省份的省级面板数据,涵盖2000年至2021年.
- 采用了差异差异概括时刻方法 (DIFF-GMM).
- 应用固定效应 (FE) 和固定效应仪表变量 (FE-IV) 模型的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 人口老龄化对经济发展具有显著的抑制作用.
- 卫生支出对经济发展产生了显著的积极影响.
- 增加的医疗支出部分减轻了衰老的负面经济后果,但衰老也减少了这种积极影响.
结论:
- 人口老龄化对中国的经济增长构成重大风险.
- 在人口变化中,对卫生支出的战略投资对于经济性至关重要.
- 政策建议强调持续的公共和私人卫生支出,以促进经济发展和实现"健康中国"的目标.
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