基于可靠的运营天气预报的热浪归因
Nicholas J Leach1,2, Christopher D Roberts3, Matthias Aengenheyster4,3
1Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK. nicholas.leach@physics.ox.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|May 30, 2024
概括
人类活动使2021年太平洋西北热浪的可能性增加了8倍. 由于全球变暖,这种极端天气事件的风险每20年翻一番,影响了适应计划.
科学领域:
- 气候科学气候科学
- 极端天气归因 极端天气归因
背景情况:
- 2021年太平洋西北部热浪的强度挑战了传统的极端天气归因方法.
- 传统的统计和气候模型很难完全捕捉事件的物理.
研究的目的:
- 量化人类引起的气候变化对2021年太平洋西北地区热浪的影响.
- 评估在持续的全球变暖下,类似的极端热情事件的未来可能性.
主要方法:
- 利用最先进的运营天气预报系统来模拟热浪的详细物理.
- 利用这些模拟来进行基于预测的归因分析.
主要成果:
- 人类的影响使2021年太平洋西北地区的热浪至少增加了8倍 (有95%的置信区间为2至50倍).
- 按照目前的全球变暖速度,这种事件的可能性预计每20年翻一番 (95% CI: 10-50年).
- 基于预测的归因为理解极端事件风险提供了一种综合方法.
结论:
- 人为引起的气候变化显著增加了极端热情事件的可能性,例如2021年太平洋西北热浪.
- 事件可能性的快速增加需要紧急考虑气候变化适应规划.
- 开发基于预测的常规归因服务对于估计极端天气中的气候变化风险至关重要.
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